Intelligence

MOCK assessment: Sanctions calendar is the near-term catalyst. Diplomatic statements reduce probability of immediate kinetic spillover but do not remove market risk around enforcement.

Heuristic composition · not verified intelligence

• Will new Iran sanctions be enacted by September?42% —
• Will Iran enter formal diplomatic talks before year-end?31% —

Updated 2026-08-04 20:34:21 UTC

On Ukraine reports renewed pressure on eastern front logistics, the evidence is balanced with no decisive lean, driven primarily by information signals (0 supporting, 0 contradicting). Strongest single item: "Ukraine reports renewed pressure on eastern front logistics". Composite confidence is low (30%). This is an evidence-derived assessment, not a probability of outcome.

Heuristic composition · not verified intelligence

• Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?— —

Elevated US–Iran tensions over nuclear negotiations, sanctions enforcement, and Strait of Hormuz security. Second Trump administration posture emphasizes maximum pressure while keeping a diplomatic channel open. 112 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?0% 0.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?0% -0.3¢

Full-scale war entering its fourth year with contested Donbas frontlines, sustained Western military aid to Kyiv, and episodic ceasefire diplomacy. 141 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?8% +1.0¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?0% -0.3¢

Gaza war with intermittent ceasefire talks, hostage diplomacy, and regional normalization pressure via Abraham Accords expansion. 90 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?0% -0.4¢
• Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?0% -0.8¢

Cross-strait deterrence posture with PLA exercises, semiconductor supply-chain leverage, and US extended-deterrence commitments under sustained pressure on Taiwanese autonomy. 21 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Xi Jinping out by June 30?0% 0.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?9% -1.0¢

Civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces with contested control of Khartoum, Darfur displacement, and episodic ceasefire diplomacy brokered by regional actors. 2 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?0% +1.5¢
• Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?0% 0.0¢

Updated 2026-07-21 09:07:57 UTC

Contested Maduro authoritarian rule, opposition mobilization, US sanctions on PDVSA oil exports, and episodic election legitimacy crises with regional diplomatic isolation. 17 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?0% 0.0¢
• Will Venezuela become 51st state?3% +0.5¢

DPRK nuclear and missile testing cycle, sanctions enforcement, and leadership succession risk under Kim Jong Un with intermittent US–South Korea deterrence posture and stalled denuclearization diplomacy. 7 open Polymarket contracts are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?0% +0.1¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?12% -1.0¢

Post-coup military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso aligned via the Alliance of Sahel States, Russian Africa Corps/Wagner security partnerships, and ECOWAS sanctions pressure amid jihadist insurgency spillover.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

Updated 2026-08-04 01:11:22 UTC

Enduring India–Pakistan rivalry centered on Kashmir, Line of Control incidents, cross-border terrorism diplomacy, and episodic military escalation between nuclear-armed neighbors. 1 open Polymarket contract are linked.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

• Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?0% -0.6¢

Updated 2026-06-28 16:17:07 UTC

Maritime coercion and reef militarization in the South China Sea between China and claimant states — chiefly the Philippines — with US freedom-of-navigation presence; distinct from cross-strait Taiwan deterrence.

Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment

Updated 2026-08-03 20:17:25 UTC