Platform Information

Stratos Amber is a strategic risk terminal. It aggregates structured events from global sources into country-level scores, momentum, and escalation signals, so you can monitor where risk is moving and why.

The platform is designed to be directional and comparable rather than predictive in an absolute sense. Scores help you rank, track, and explain risk across countries over time.

The Global Threat Index is a single snapshot of systemic geopolitical risk. It is derived from the distribution of country scores in the current universe.

The index combines four components: concentration of risk in the highest-risk countries (top 5 weighted), recent 24h acceleration (positive deltas), breadth of elevated/high/severe countries, and recent high-confidence signal intensity. Light smoothing is applied so the index moves meaningfully when conditions change without excessive volatility.

• Score is a 0–100 value summarising aggregate risk.
• Trend shows the average 24h change across countries.
• The band label (LOW → SEVERE) reflects the current level of global tension implied by underlying country scores.

Each country receives a daily risk score and band. Scores are built from events in the last 24h, grouped by vertical (military, political, sanctions, incident, contextual/business). Ranking uses severity weighting so that active conflict and military/geopolitical signals count more than business or contextual news—countries in direct conflict or under sustained military pressure rank higher than countries with mainly economic or contextual coverage.

Band thresholds are applied consistently across the platform:

• Scores are on a 0–100 scale; higher indicates higher assessed risk.
• LOW — score 0–9; minimal assessed risk.
• GUARDED — score 10–24; low but non-zero risk.
• ELEVATED — score 25–49; moderate risk requiring attention.
• HIGH — score 50–79; significant risk.
• SEVERE — score 80–100; very high assessed risk.
• The 24h delta and momentum labels describe recent movement, not long term forecasts.

Predictive escalation highlights countries whose recent pattern of scores and signals suggests movement toward higher risk bands.

• It combines recent score changes with the density and severity of new signals.
• It is directional: it surfaces countries to watch rather than offering point predictions.
• Bands such as Escalating or Critical Watch are prompts to investigate the underlying drivers.

Live intelligence signals are structured events derived from news and other open sources. They are normalised into fields such as country, vertical, confidence, and score contribution.

• Each signal has a canonical timestamp (prefer published_at, fallback created_at) that is used consistently for ordering and display.
• Confidence expresses how well-formed and corroborated the event is within the pipeline, not whether the underlying story is “objectively true”.
• The score contribution shows how much the signal moves the relevant country's risk score on that day.

Stratos Amber tracks which sources contribute to each signal and groups related events into clusters when possible.

• Source labels and domains are shown so you can see where information is coming from at a glance.
• Confirmation badges indicate when multiple signals point to the same underlying development.
• Clusters roll up related signals, exposing representative sources, a summary title, and aggregate impact over a window.

Country scores are stored as daily snapshots. The Overview and Map use the latest available score per country; when time travel is enabled, data is filtered by the selected point-in-time.

• Live intelligence signals are ingested continuously; the feed and clusters reflect events within the chosen time window (e.g. last 24h).
• Predictive escalation and the Global Threat Index are computed from current country scores, 24h deltas, and recent signal volume.
• Page revalidation (e.g. every 60 seconds on Overview) keeps the dashboard reasonably fresh without overloading the backend.

The platform is designed to support professional judgement, not replace it. Scores and signals provide a structured starting point for analysis and discussion.

• Use bands and scores to rank and triage where attention goes.
• Use deltas, momentum, and predictive escalation to understand how risk is evolving.
• Use the live feed and clusters to trace the narrative-level drivers behind those moves.
• On the Map, switch layers (total, military, political, sanctions, etc.) to see how different verticals contribute to country colouring.