Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

93%

Snapshot Δ

-3.5¢

Volume

$1.7M

Snapshot path

89% → 85%range 83–90% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Belarus expands military power just miles from Ukraine - London Business News
Ukraine shoots down Russian drone at record 6 , 858 - meter altitude
The Persian Gulf after the US : Saudi Arabia puts brakes on Trump over large scale attack on Iran and gives role to China and Russia

Related markets

Russia–Ukraine War

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

10%

—

territorial_control$69.9K

Russia–Ukraine War

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

—

diplomatic$51.6K

Russia–Ukraine War

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

—

territorial_control$84.8K

Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?