Markets

Polymarket intelligence workspaces — why probability moved, what evidence supports Yes/No, and what catalysts matter next. Not a price list.

Engine markets are mock-labelled where noted. Open a market for the full research workspace (assessment, timeline, graph, confidence triplet).

Iran, United States

Will new Iran sanctions be enacted by September?

42%

-0.4¢

sanctions$1.2M

Why · Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal.

Iran, United States, United Kingdom

Will Iran enter formal diplomatic talks before year-end?

31%

-0.4¢

diplomatic$640.0K

Why · Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal.

Ukraine, Russia

Will a Ukraine ceasefire be announced by October?

18%

-0.4¢

ceasefire$2.1M

Why · Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal.

US–Iran Conflict

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

0.0¢

leadership$65.9M

US–Iran Conflict

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

-0.1¢

diplomatic$44.1M

US–Iran Conflict

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

0.0¢

leadership$26.1M

Russia–Ukraine War

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

+1.0¢

leadership$21.8M

US–Iran Conflict

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

18%

0.0¢

commodity_proxy$11.8M

US–Iran Conflict

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

+1.0¢

commodity_proxy$11.8M

Trump out as President before 2027?

-1.0¢

leadership$11.7M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

-0.4¢

treaty$8.5M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

-0.8¢

treaty$8.0M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Netanyahu out by June 30?

-0.2¢

leadership$6.9M

US–Iran Conflict

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

0.0¢

leadership$6.6M

US–Iran Conflict

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

-0.8¢

territorial_control$6.3M

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

0.0¢

commodity_proxy$6.1M

US–Iran Conflict

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

-0.4¢

territorial_control$5.9M

US–Iran Conflict

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

-0.4¢

treaty$5.5M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

-0.7¢

diplomatic$4.8M

US–Iran Conflict

Iran leadership change by December 31?

14%

+1.0¢

leadership$4.6M

US–Iran Conflict

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

-1.0¢

treaty$4.6M

US–Iran Conflict

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

-0.1¢

treaty$4.5M

US–Iran Conflict

Iran leadership change by June 30?

-0.2¢

leadership$4.4M

Russia–Ukraine War

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

-0.3¢

leadership$4.4M

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

-0.1¢

commodity_proxy$4.0M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

-0.2¢

treaty$3.8M

Taiwan–China Tensions

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

0.0¢

leadership$3.7M

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

-0.1¢

commodity_proxy$3.6M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

-0.1¢

territorial_control$3.5M

Venezuela / Maduro Regime

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?

0.0¢

diplomatic$3.4M

Taiwan–China Tensions

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

-1.0¢

territorial_control$3.4M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

-64.7¢

diplomatic$3.3M

Why · Snapshot move -64.7¢ — open for full assessment.

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

-6.0¢

diplomatic$3.3M

Why · Snapshot move -6.0¢ — open for full assessment.

Russia–Ukraine War

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

-2.0¢

leadership$3.2M

Why · Snapshot move -2.0¢ — open for full assessment.

US–Iran Conflict

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

+2.6¢

diplomatic$3.1M

Why · Snapshot move +2.6¢ — open for full assessment.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?

0.0¢

commodity_proxy$3.0M

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

-0.1¢

diplomatic$3.0M

Russia–Ukraine War

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

11%

-2.0¢

treaty$2.8M

Why · Snapshot move -2.0¢ — open for full assessment.

US–Iran Conflict

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

11%

+0.5¢

treaty$2.8M

US–Iran Conflict

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

-6.0¢

diplomatic$2.8M

Why · Snapshot move -6.0¢ — open for full assessment.

US–Iran Conflict

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

-0.5¢

treaty$2.7M

Russia–Ukraine War

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

23%

+2.0¢

ceasefire$2.6M

Why · Snapshot move +2.0¢ — open for full assessment.

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

47%

-1.0¢

leadership$2.5M