Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

56%

Snapshot Δ

-9.0¢

Volume

$318.3K

Snapshot path

40% → 31%range 31–40% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Iran conflict to keep diesel supplies tight , oil majors warn
calcuttanews.net
Urgent call for military build - up in Australia backyard amid Chinese , Russian threats
sbs.com.au
Iraqi gov . denies reports of US aircraft landing at Ain al - Asad Air Base
presstv.co.uk
Military Book Review The War that Made the Middle East : World War One and the End of the Ottoman Empire
strategypage.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

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Iran conflict to keep diesel supplies tight , oil majors warn

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Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

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