Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

62%

Snapshot Δ

-9.5¢

Volume

$96.7K

Snapshot path

61% → 51%range 49–61% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Belarus expands military power just miles from Ukraine - London Business News
Ukraine shoots down Russian drone at record 6 , 858 - meter altitude
The Persian Gulf after the US : Saudi Arabia puts brakes on Trump over large scale attack on Iran and gives role to China and Russia

Related markets

Russia–Ukraine War

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

10%

—

territorial_control$69.9K

Russia–Ukraine War

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

—

diplomatic$51.6K

Russia–Ukraine War

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

—

territorial_control$84.8K

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Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?