Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

10%

Snapshot Δ

-9.0¢

Volume

$69.9K

Snapshot path

22% → 13%range 13–22% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Belarus expands military power just miles from Ukraine - London Business News
Ukraine shoots down Russian drone at record 6 , 858 - meter altitude
The Persian Gulf after the US : Saudi Arabia puts brakes on Trump over large scale attack on Iran and gives role to China and Russia

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Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

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territorial_control$84.8K

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Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026?