Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

Snapshot Δ

-5.8¢

Volume

$745.8K

Snapshot path

6% → 0%range 0–6% · 24 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

No keyword-matched items.

Current catalysts

Belarus expands military power just miles from Ukraine - London Business News
Ukraine shoots down Russian drone at record 6 , 858 - meter altitude
The Persian Gulf after the US : Saudi Arabia puts brakes on Trump over large scale attack on Iran and gives role to China and Russia

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StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

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