Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

54%

Snapshot Δ

-11.0¢

Volume

$393.7K

Snapshot path

74% → 63%range 63–74% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Woman carrying bomb kills 3 , injures 21 outside Moscow restaurant ; Russia probes suspected terror attack
Byron York : A final Lindsey Graham moment in D . C ., South Carolina
Evacuations in Greece as Europe tackles wildfires

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StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by August 31?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?