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Geo intel · Polymarket

Structured assessments for prediction-market traders

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Sudan Civil War

Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

0%

Snapshot Δ

-0.1¢

Volume

$45.4K

Snapshot path

0% → 0%range 0–2% · 40 pts

Why it moved

No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

  • Child soldiers recount horrors of Sudan war , presence of mercenaries

    advocate-news.com

  • Takeaways from AP story on child soldiers trained by Colombian mercenaries in Sudan

    sitkasentinel.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

No keyword-matched items.

Current catalysts

  • Sudan : Drone Warfare and Humanitarian Crisis Deepen Alarm in Darfur and Kordofan
  • Sudan : Drone Strikes Threaten Civilians and Aid Operations in Sudan
  • Somalia : Whilst the World Debates Somaliland Recognition , Its Girls Remain Invisible

Related markets

Sudan Civil War

Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

0%

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territorial_control$22.4K
Continue on Polymarket →

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