Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

Snapshot Δ

-5.9¢

Volume

$1.2M

Snapshot path

9% → 3%range 3–9% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

US President suspends strikes against Iran , conditional on reaching a deal
thepeninsulaqatar.com
Iran shocks with strategic shift to strike US first as Hormuz bottleneck threatens to wreck Trump presidency
bankingnews.gr

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Explainer : What to know about Gaza disarmament pact
austinglobe.com
Report : Islamic Jihad agrees to disarm
israelnationalnews.com
Palestinian injured by Israeli army gunfire near Jalazon refugee camp
english.wafa.ps
Cautious optimism on resumption soon of stalled US - Iran talks after Trump scrapped planned strikes : Sources

Current catalysts

Explainer : What to know about Gaza disarmament pact
Saudi crown prince stresses to Trump need for all efforts to avert wider regional conflict
More progressive Americans are swearing off traditional media

Related markets

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?

—

diplomatic$46.1K

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?

—

diplomatic$21.4K

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

—

diplomatic$166.4K

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StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?

Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?