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Geo intel · Polymarket

Structured assessments for prediction-market traders

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Critical theatres active

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Venezuela / Maduro Regime

Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

14%

Snapshot Δ

+7.5¢

Volume

$22.0K

Snapshot path

23% → 30%range 14–60% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

  • Trump administration will close 5 smaller US consulates in Africa , Asia and the Western Hemisphere – Winnipeg Free Press

    winnipegfreepress.com

  • Ukraine and Gulf conflicts increasingly intertwined , says Russia - Iran analyst

    lrt.lt

  • Truck explodes outside Colombia police base

    koreaherald.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

  • US pressuring African states to abandon ICC Le Monde

    russiaherald.com

  • Venezuela transition talks to start in person

    koreaherald.com

Current catalysts

  • US pressuring African states to abandon ICC Le Monde
  • The Latest : Senate panel advances Blanche nomination for attorney general
  • The Latest : Senate panel advances Blanche nomination for attorney general

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Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

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