Northern South America / Caribbean
Market
0%
Venue Yes · not forecast
Analyst
high
Judgment quality
Evidence
high
Source coverage
Freshness
high
Data recency
Coverage heuristic (17 open markets, 50 fused items, theatre summary present) — not a verified probability of outcome.
Heuristic
Contested Maduro authoritarian rule, opposition mobilization, US sanctions on PDVSA oil exports, and episodic election legitimacy crises with regional diplomatic isolation. 17 open Polymarket contracts are linked.
Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment
Polymarket
| Market | Yes | Snapshot Δ | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $3.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? territorial_control · $394.5K | 2% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? diplomatic · $362.6K | 9% | +0.5¢ |
Watch
Decision support
Heuristic
kvia.com · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Cubans adapting to U.S. oil embargo through renewable energy solutions and Chinese imports (solar tricycles, rechargeable fans), showing embargo effectiveness limited by Chinese alternative supply chains.
us.cnn.com · 2026-09-05 14:45 UTC
Duplicate coverage of Cuban adaptation to U.S. oil blockade via Chinese electric vehicles and renewable technology, highlighting sanctions circumvention through Asian trade.
freemalaysiatoday.com · 2026-08-18 02:15 UTC
Venezuela earthquake death toll reaches 6,438, representing a major humanitarian crisis that will strain government capacity and potentially destabilize the Maduro regime amid existing political tensions.
Heuristic
Heuristic
Heuristic
Heuristic
Chronology
2026-09-13 09:15 UTC
Latin America : Patterns and Penduluminternationalviewpoint.org
2026-09-13 09:00 UTC
Temporary coach wants to make people proud of natl football teamkoreaherald.com
2026-09-13 08:45 UTC
Business . Scoop » Winston Peter Speech – Cool Heads , Rational Judgementbusiness.scoop.co.nz
2026-09-13 08:15 UTC
A worthy 9 / 11 remembrance – Walt Zlotownuclear-news.net
2026-09-13 08:00 UTC
Republican candidate Jim Marchant dream tear up Nevada vote systemEntities
Network
Heuristic
Citations
| Polymarket ↗ |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? leadership · $304.1K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? leadership · $297.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? leadership · $294.1K | 7% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? leadership · $179.6K | 3% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? election · $130.0K | 16% | -0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? diplomatic · $114.8K | 8% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? diplomatic · $92.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? commodity_proxy · $59.9K | 3% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026? diplomatic · $13.0K | 5% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? commodity_proxy · $11.1K | 55% | -5.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? commodity_proxy · $9.9K | 5% | -0.3¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? commodity_proxy · $8.0K | 21% | +1.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in June? diplomatic · $5.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in July? diplomatic · $1.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
manilatimes.net · 2026-08-18 01:15 UTC
Duplicate reporting confirms Venezuela earthquake death toll at 6,438, underscoring severity of humanitarian crisis facing the country.
brazilsun.com · 2026-08-18 01:00 UTC
Paraguay signed military cooperation pact with the United States, raising concerns from Brazilian presidential advisor about regional security implications and potential US military expansion in South America.
politicalwire.com · 2026-08-18 01:00 UTC
Article discusses US Space Force current operational activities, potentially relevant to military capabilities but lacks specific actionable geopolitical developments.
english.news.cn · 2026-08-18 00:45 UTC
Duplicate reporting via Xinhua of Paraguay-US military pact causing Brazilian concerns about regional security and American military presence in South America.
Heuristic
No de-escalation-leaning items in the fused set.
yahoo.com
2026-09-13 07:45 UTC
Auckland . Scoop » Winston Peter Speech – Cool Heads , Rational Judgementauckland.scoop.co.nz
2026-09-13 07:30 UTC
America Cascade of Failuresdailykos.com
2026-09-13 07:30 UTC
An ambassador in Ljubljana , but not in London : Israel foreign policy shifts away from longstanding allieskrdo.com
2026-09-13 07:15 UTC
An ambassador in Ljubljana , but not in London : Israel foreign policy shifts away from longstanding alliesktvz.com
2026-09-13 06:45 UTC
Community Scoop » Winston Peter Speech – Cool Heads , Rational Judgementcommunity.scoop.co.nz
2026-09-12 16:00 UTC
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR : Climate change , SAVE Act and reproductive freedomidahopress.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Cuban Government Boasts About Electrical Improvements Despite Over 1 , 200 MW Remaining Idle Due to Fuel Shortagecubaheadlines.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Why Canada ? America northern neighbor seems an unlikely target for a trade warfinance.yahoo.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
US oil giant Chevron confirms it will expand operations in Venezuelaabc11.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Multilingual News Platform Launched in Saint Lucia Reaching 138 Nationsthevoiceslu.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Venezuelan Plane Crash Involving Businessmen Tied to Plus Ultra Investigationcubaheadlines.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Washington Examiner | Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress , the President , and the Federal Governmentwashingtonexaminer.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Washington Examiner | Political News and Conservative Analysis About Congress , the President , and the Federal Governmentwashingtonexaminer.com
2026-09-12 15:30 UTC
Cold News Keeps the World Hot while Rich Nations Continue Ignoring Worsening Global Conditionsthevoiceslu.com
2026-09-12 15:15 UTC
Let have a chat about Islamophobiadailykos.com
2026-09-08 07:30 UTC
Russia Remains India Top Oil Supplier in August as Imports Decline – NaturalNews . comnaturalnews.com
2026-09-08 07:30 UTC
UN High Commissioner For Human Rights Volker Türk - Global Update To The 63rd Session Of The Human Rights Councilscoop.co.nz
2026-09-08 06:45 UTC
Rubio launches Latin America tour to cement US influencethefrontierpost.com
2026-09-08 06:00 UTC
Why Trump dream of an arch is his most revealing legacy playcnn.com
2026-09-08 06:00 UTC
Why Trump dream of an arch is his most revealing legacy playus.cnn.com
2026-09-08 06:00 UTC
Good progress , bad structuretimesrepublican.com
2026-09-08 03:15 UTC
For New York Haitian community , annual West Indian Day Parade means more in trying timesunion-bulletin.com
2026-09-08 03:15 UTC
Washington Venezuela Oil Deal Is About Much More Than Crude | Peak Oil News and Message Boardspeakoil.com
2026-09-08 03:15 UTC
Two convicted of jackpotting a Kansas ATM face deportationgreatbendpost.com
2026-09-08 03:00 UTC
Fighting the bully : Canada throws a punch back at Trumpbrisbanetimes.com.au
2026-09-05 16:00 UTC
Im A Celebrity stars spotted at airport as they jet off to film new spin - off showmanchestereveningnews.co.uk
2026-09-05 16:00 UTC
At their home away from home , Brewers pursue another win against Redspittsburghstar.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Venezuelan billionaire investigated by U . S . now has Pentagon oil dealcp24.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
How Cubans are navigating the US oil blockade with rechargeable fans and solar - powered Chinese tricycleskvia.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Gunter : Eastern pipeline trumps oil tariffs in Canada - U . S . trade waredmontonjournal.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
2 . 3 Million Illegals Gone : America Immigrant Population Plummets For First Time In A Centuryzerohedge.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Gunter : Eastern pipeline trumps oil tariffs in Canada - U . S . trade waredmontonsun.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
ICE agent re - arrested after being charged with lying over Minnesota shootingjpost.com
2026-09-05 14:45 UTC
The Donny and Delcy showkaieteurnewsonline.com
2026-09-05 14:45 UTC
How Cubans navigate the US oil blockade with Chinese tricyclesus.cnn.com
2026-08-18 02:15 UTC
Colombia president pegs early quake losses at US$9 . 6bilfreemalaysiatoday.com
2026-08-18 02:15 UTC
Death toll from Venezuela earthquake rises to 6 , 438freemalaysiatoday.com
2026-08-18 02:00 UTC
The voracious , and thoughtful , musical appetite of the PUBLIQuartetksut.org
2026-08-18 01:15 UTC
Where is Melania Trump ? First lady missing from public eye for a monthhindustantimes.com
2026-08-18 01:15 UTC
Venezuela earthquake death toll rises to 6 , 438manilatimes.net
2026-08-18 01:00 UTC
Paraguay - U . S . military pact raises Brazil concern : presidential advisorbrazilsun.com
2026-08-18 01:00 UTC
Chief operating officer leaves Fifa role after criticism of Gianni Infantinothe42.ie
2026-08-18 01:00 UTC
How Space Force Is Fighting Wars Todaypoliticalwire.com
2026-08-18 01:00 UTC
Union rely on resilience , Bruno Damiani brace to rally at New York City FCdailylocal.com
2026-08-18 00:45 UTC
Paraguay - U . S . military pact raises Brazil concern : presidential advisor - Xinhuaenglish.news.cn
Orinoco Belt
asset · heavy crude reserves