Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

18%

Snapshot Δ

-38.0¢

Volume

$101.5K

Snapshot path

68% → 30%range 17–68% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

US President suspends strikes against Iran , conditional on reaching a deal
thepeninsulaqatar.com
Iran shocks with strategic shift to strike US first as Hormuz bottleneck threatens to wreck Trump presidency
bankingnews.gr

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Explainer : What to know about Gaza disarmament pact
austinglobe.com
Report : Islamic Jihad agrees to disarm
israelnationalnews.com
Palestinian injured by Israeli army gunfire near Jalazon refugee camp
english.wafa.ps
Cautious optimism on resumption soon of stalled US - Iran talks after Trump scrapped planned strikes : Sources

Current catalysts

Explainer : What to know about Gaza disarmament pact
Saudi crown prince stresses to Trump need for all efforts to avert wider regional conflict
More progressive Americans are swearing off traditional media

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Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Greece recognize Palestine before 2027?

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?

Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?