Iran, United States
Market
42%
Venue Yes · not forecast
Analyst
medium
Judgment quality
Evidence
medium
Source coverage
Freshness
low
Data recency
Primary linked market implies 42% Yes — venue price, not our forecast. Evidence strength medium (3 sources, 0 evidence items). Data freshness low (latest timeline/source activity). Analyst confidence medium — judgment quality, not outcome certainty.
Assessment
MOCK assessment: Sanctions calendar is the near-term catalyst. Diplomatic statements reduce probability of immediate kinetic spillover but do not remove market risk around enforcement.
Heuristic composition · not verified intelligence
Assessment
MOCK dossier: Multiple wires report elevated tension around Iran sanctions snapback, with both pressure and diplomatic-channel language in play.
Polymarket
| Market | Yes | Snapshot Δ | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will new Iran sanctions be enacted by September? sanctions · $0 | 42% | — | — |
| Will Iran enter formal diplomatic talks before year-end? diplomatic · $0 | 31% | — | — |
Watch
Assessment
No escalation-leaning items in the fused set.
Assessment
No de-escalation-leaning items in the fused set.
Assessment
Chronology
2026-07-15 08:00 UTC
Iran warns of consequences if sanctions snapback proceedsReuters (MOCK)
2026-07-15 14:30 UTC
AP: Tehran signals response options ahead of sanctions decisionAP (MOCK)
2026-07-16 09:15 UTC
Government statement: allies urge diplomatic channel remain openGovernment wire (MOCK)
Entities
Graph
Heuristic bands
Contained signaling / limited escalation
Band ~38% · conf lowMost geopolitical shocks remain bounded after initial signaling once costs of further escalation become clear. Conditioned lightly on event type “sanctions” and severity 3.
Material escalation lasting days–weeks
Band ~28% · conf lowIf primary sources confirm the trigger and reciprocal measures follow, disruption can persist through the news cycle. Conditioned lightly on event type “sanctions” and severity 3.
Diplomatic resolution / off-ramp
Band ~22% · conf lowExternal pressure and domestic cost often produce negotiated language that de-escalates market risk premia. Conditioned lightly on event type “sanctions” and severity 3.
Prolonged crisis / cascade
Band ~12% · conf lowLow base-rate tail: miscalculation compounds across theatres. Treat as scenario planning, not base case. Conditioned lightly on event type “sanctions” and severity 3.
Assessment
Citations