diplomatic
Yes (venue)
31%
24h Δ
-0.4¢
7d Δ
+4.2¢
Volume
$640.0K
Liquidity
$95.0K
7-day Yes path
Venue snapshots · as of 2026-08-04 21:55 UTC · MOCK series
Market probability
31%
Venue-implied · not our forecast
Analyst confidence
low
Assessment quality · not outcome odds
Data confidence
medium
Coverage / freshness
Brief
Why priced this way: Venue-implied Yes ≈ 31% reflects venue-implied odds on written resolution criteria — crowd view of path likelihood, not verified adjudication. What moved it: Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal. Assumptions embedded: The current price (Venue-implied Yes ≈ 31%) assumes the resolution criteria are interpreted as written — not as media narrative. Evidence support/challenge: linked event coverage is thin; treat first reports as claims. Most likely next mover: confirmation quality and durability of developments under “Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension”. Monitor: primary-source confirmation windows and catalyst calendars on linked events (48–72h).
Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal.
Drivers
Current drivers
Recent developments
Case
YES argues that conditions required by the resolution criteria for “Will Iran enter formal diplomatic talks before year-end?” are more likely than the venue price implies, given linked intelligence.
Supporting developments
Historical precedents
Case confidence: low · composed_heuristic
Case
NO argues that the affirmative path stalls, is walked back, or fails resolution criteria — keeping Yes below the levels bulls imply.
Supporting developments
Historical precedents
Case confidence: low · composed_heuristic
Chronology
2026-07-15 08:00 UTC
Iran warns of consequences if sanctions snapback proceeds
Reuters (MOCK)
Event dossier: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension →2026-07-15 14:30 UTC
AP: Tehran signals response options ahead of sanctions decision
AP (MOCK)
Event dossier: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension →2026-07-16 09:15 UTC
Government statement: allies urge diplomatic channel remain open
Government wire (MOCK)
Event dossier: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension →Watch
Scheduled diplomatic round / envoy visit
1–4 weeks
Talks markets reprice on confirmed agendas more than on background contact.
diplomacy · likelihood medium · linked event
Follow-through on: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension
24–72h
This market is linked (primary) to the event dossier; confirmation or walk-back should reprice Yes.
other · likelihood medium · linked event
Graph
Graph: 2 nodes · 1 edges (shared events, actors, theatre, type).
Context
Formal talks announcements after coercive signaling
Similarities
Differences
Lessons
Implied
Market probability is venue-implied. Analyst confidence is judgment quality of the assessment. Data confidence is coverage/freshness of linked events and snapshots — not a forecast of resolution.
Bidirectional
StratosAmber provides the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.