sanctions
Yes (venue)
42%
24h Δ
-0.4¢
7d Δ
+4.2¢
Volume
$1.2M
Liquidity
$180.0K
7-day Yes path
Venue snapshots · as of 2026-08-04 21:56 UTC · MOCK series
Market probability
42%
Venue-implied · not our forecast
Analyst confidence
low
Assessment quality · not outcome odds
Data confidence
medium
Coverage / freshness
Brief
Why priced this way: Venue-implied Yes ≈ 42% reflects venue-implied odds on written resolution criteria — crowd view of path likelihood, not verified adjudication. What moved it: Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal. Assumptions embedded: The current price (Venue-implied Yes ≈ 42%) assumes the resolution criteria are interpreted as written — not as media narrative. Evidence support/challenge: linked event coverage is thin; treat first reports as claims. Most likely next mover: confirmation quality and durability of developments under “Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension”. Monitor: primary-source confirmation windows and catalyst calendars on linked events (48–72h).
Price action is effectively flat over the recent window; no material repricing signal.
Drivers
Current drivers
Recent developments
Case
YES argues that conditions required by the resolution criteria for “Will new Iran sanctions be enacted by September?” are more likely than the venue price implies, given linked intelligence.
Supporting developments
Historical precedents
Case confidence: low · composed_heuristic
Case
NO argues that the affirmative path stalls, is walked back, or fails resolution criteria — keeping Yes below the levels bulls imply.
Supporting developments
Historical precedents
Case confidence: low · composed_heuristic
Chronology
2026-07-15 08:00 UTC
Iran warns of consequences if sanctions snapback proceeds
Reuters (MOCK)
Event dossier: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension →2026-07-15 14:30 UTC
AP: Tehran signals response options ahead of sanctions decision
AP (MOCK)
Event dossier: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension →2026-07-16 09:15 UTC
Government statement: allies urge diplomatic channel remain open
Government wire (MOCK)
Event dossier: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension →Watch
Sanctions package vote / snapback calendar
7–21 days
Affirmative resolution often hinges on formal enactment language, not rhetorical pressure alone.
sanctions · likelihood high · linked event
Exemption / carve-out statements
ongoing
Carve-outs can weaken Yes even when headline sanctions rhetoric stays hot.
government_statement · likelihood medium · linked event
Follow-through on: Iran sanctions snapback diplomatic tension
24–72h
This market is linked (primary) to the event dossier; confirmation or walk-back should reprice Yes.
other · likelihood medium · linked event
Graph
Graph: 2 nodes · 1 edges (shared events, actors, theatre, type).
Context
Prior Iran / Russia sanctions calendar episodes (2018–2022)
Similarities
Differences
Lessons
Implied
Market probability is venue-implied. Analyst confidence is judgment quality of the assessment. Data confidence is coverage/freshness of linked events and snapshots — not a forecast of resolution.
Bidirectional
StratosAmber provides the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.