US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

35%

Snapshot Δ

+1.5¢

Volume

$1.2M

Snapshot path

45% → 47%range 45–47% · 40 pts

Why it moved

No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attack
channelstv.com

Current catalysts

AP Business SummaryBrief at 3 : 36 p . m . EDT
Funniest / Most Insightful Comments Of The Week At Techdirt
Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attack

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US–Iran Conflict

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diplomatic$1.2M

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treaty$74.0K

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—

diplomatic$977

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StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?