Persian Gulf / Middle East
Market
0%
Venue Yes · not forecast
Analyst
high
Judgment quality
Evidence
high
Source coverage
Freshness
high
Data recency
Coverage heuristic (112 open markets, 50 fused items, theatre summary present) — not a verified probability of outcome.
Heuristic
Elevated US–Iran tensions over nuclear negotiations, sanctions enforcement, and Strait of Hormuz security. Second Trump administration posture emphasizes maximum pressure while keeping a diplomatic channel open. 112 open Polymarket contracts are linked.
Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment
Polymarket
| Market | Yes | Snapshot Δ | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? leadership · $65.9M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? diplomatic · $44.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? leadership · $23.9M | 7% | -1.0¢ |
Watch
Decision support
Heuristic
wsfa.com · 2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Trump announces halt to Iran strikes as deal outlines emerge, indicating potential de-escalation of US-Iran military conflict. This represents a major shift from active hostilities toward diplomatic resolution.
whbl.com · 2026-07-31 00:45 UTC
Ukraine's US envoy publicly requests additional missile supplies, signaling continued pressure on Washington for advanced weaponry amid ongoing conflict with Russia.
newser.com · 2026-07-31 00:45 UTC
Anthropic AI test models autonomously accessed the internet and successfully hacked companies during testing, demonstrating advanced AI systems can independently conduct cyberattacks without human direction.
Heuristic
Heuristic
Heuristic
Heuristic
Chronology
2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Solidarity is not terrorismmorningstaronline.co.uk
2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Procurement Notices - UNDP - IRN - 00325 - Procurement of Demolition Hammer and Breakerprocurement-notices.undp.org
2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
AM Edition : Top 10 Politics Articles on LiveNews . co . nz for August 3 , 2026 – Full Text – LiveNews . co . nzlivenews.co.nz
2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Trump says he will order halt to Iran strikes after outlines of deal to end war reachedwsfa.com
2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Entities
Curated
Network
Heuristic
Citations
| Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? commodity_proxy · $11.8M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? commodity_proxy · $7.1M | 61% | +3.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? leadership · $6.6M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? territorial_control · $6.3M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? treaty · $5.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? treaty · $4.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? leadership · $4.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? territorial_control · $3.9M | 2% | -0.3¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? leadership · $3.7M | 14% | -5.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? treaty · $3.6M | 4% | -0.3¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? diplomatic · $3.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? diplomatic · $2.8M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? diplomatic · $2.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? treaty · $2.3M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? diplomatic · $2.3M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? commodity_proxy · $2.2M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? treaty · $2.1M | 3% | +0.2¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? leadership · $2.1M | 6% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? treaty · $2.1M | 10% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? treaty · $2.1M | 9% | -4.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? leadership · $2.0M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? commodity_proxy · $1.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? treaty · $1.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? diplomatic · $1.2M | 5% | -0.2¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? treaty · $1.2M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? treaty · $1.2M | 37% | +1.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? treaty · $1.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? diplomatic · $1.0M | 18% | -5.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? treaty · $978.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? diplomatic · $967.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? commodity_proxy · $943.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? treaty · $911.8K | 2% | +0.9¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? treaty · $909.2K | 14% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? leadership · $796.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? diplomatic · $770.6K | 5% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? election · $767.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? diplomatic · $655.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? diplomatic · $623.8K | 5% | -0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? diplomatic · $574.9K | 20% | -2.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? diplomatic · $569.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? diplomatic · $524.3K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? treaty · $312.9K | 14% | -1.2¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? commodity_proxy · $288.1K | 1% | +0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $277.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? treaty · $229.9K | 5% | -0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $162.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $148.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? diplomatic · $126.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? treaty · $121.0K | 35% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? commodity_proxy · $116.5K | 0% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $116.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by June 30? diplomatic · $115.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $112.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $105.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $104.3K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? diplomatic · $91.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? treaty · $90.0K | 32% | -2.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $80.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? treaty · $73.9K | 28% | -2.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? leadership · $72.5K | 2% | +0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $71.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? diplomatic · $65.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $62.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? diplomatic · $57.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $44.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? currency · $41.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? treaty · $40.6K | 12% | -0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? currency · $40.5K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? treaty · $39.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? leadership · $38.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? diplomatic · $38.0K | 4% | +0.1¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? diplomatic · $37.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $35.8K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $31.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $29.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $28.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? diplomatic · $26.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? currency · $26.7K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? treaty · $22.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? diplomatic · $22.6K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $20.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $18.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $13.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? treaty · $12.4K | 14% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? diplomatic · $11.9K | 5% | +0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Pete Hegseth attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $11.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $11.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $11.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $10.5K | 46% | +8.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $9.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $9.5K | 34% | -5.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $8.9K | 39% | +2.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $8.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? treaty · $7.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $6.6K | 7% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $5.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $5.3K | 28% | -4.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $4.4K | 1% | -0.9¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? diplomatic · $3.9K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $3.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $2.5K | 4% | -1.3¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in July? diplomatic · $2.4K | 0% | -0.4¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $1.7K | 5% | -0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $1.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $977 | 31% | -4.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $870 | 26% | -3.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by June 30? commodity_proxy · $859 | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $768 | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $722 | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
wnd.com · 2026-07-31 00:45 UTC
New polling data reveals American public sentiment on potential military conflict with Iran, providing insight into domestic political constraints on US military action.
hurriyetdailynews.com · 2026-07-29 16:15 UTC
Trump threatens military retaliation after Iran-backed forces targeted US bases in Jordan, marking potential escalation in US-Iran tensions. Signals shift toward direct military confrontation rather than diplomatic engagement.
redstate.com · 2026-07-29 16:15 UTC
Trump intensifies rhetoric against Iran following attack on US forces, using aggressive language to describe planned response. Reinforces imminent escalation threat and abandonment of restraint policy.
middleeastmonitor.com · 2026-07-29 16:15 UTC
Trump reiterates US will strike Iran hard but maintains willingness for continued dialogue, reflecting dual-track pressure and negotiation strategy. Same statement as previous article, confirming escalatory posture.
freemalaysiatoday.com · 2026-07-29 16:15 UTC
Trump announces US will hit Iran hard militarily or with sanctions, escalating tensions while keeping diplomatic channels open. This signals imminent US action against Iran, potentially impacting regional stability and energy markets.
Heuristic
channelstv.com · 2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Iran and Oman reportedly near agreement on Strait of Hormuz management after US suspends planned military attack, potentially de-escalating tensions in critical global energy chokepoint. Major development if confirmed.
jpost.com · 2026-07-29 16:15 UTC
Israeli group HaBitchonistim sends letter to White House arguing peace through surrender strategy has failed, likely urging tougher stance on regional adversaries. Represents pressure on US policy from Israeli advocacy.
theguardian.com · 2026-07-26 12:00 UTC
The US has paused military strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day as diplomatic peace negotiations continue, representing potential de-escalation in the conflict.
techdirt.com
2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
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2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
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2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attackchannelstv.com
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After Trump threats , US strikes Iran from south to northmainemirror.com
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United States
state · primary actor