US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

10%

Snapshot Δ

-1.0¢

Volume

$2.1M

Snapshot path

13% → 12%range 12–13% · 40 pts

Why it moved

No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attack
channelstv.com

Current catalysts

AP Business SummaryBrief at 3 : 36 p . m . EDT
Funniest / Most Insightful Comments Of The Week At Techdirt
Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attack

Related markets

US–Iran Conflict

Iran Nuke before 2027?

—

diplomatic$1.2M

US–Iran Conflict

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

28%

—

treaty$74.0K

US–Iran Conflict

Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

31%

—

diplomatic$977

Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?