StratosAmber

Intelligence

  • Intelligence
  • Live Events
  • Markets
  • Scenarios
  • Watchlist
  • Briefings
  • Search
  • About

Geo intel · Polymarket

Structured assessments for prediction-market traders

—:—:— UTC

Critical theatres active

Search⌘Ki
← Markets
US–Iran Conflict

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

39%

Snapshot Δ

+6.5¢

Volume

$8.9K

Snapshot path

56% → 63%range 46–74% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

  • Trump says he will order halt to Iran strikes after outlines of deal to end war reached

    wsfa.com

  • Poll shows percentage of Americans who think Iran war is worth fighting * WorldNetDaily * by Dylan Kresak , Daily Caller News Foundation

    wnd.com

  • Ukraine envoy to US says We need the missiles

    whbl.com

  • What will it take to finally to wake us up ? | The Jewish Star

    thejewishstar.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

  • Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attack

    channelstv.com

Current catalysts

  • AP Business SummaryBrief at 3 : 36 p . m . EDT
  • Funniest / Most Insightful Comments Of The Week At Techdirt
  • Iran , Oman Near Strait of Hormuz Deal After US Suspends Planned Attack

Related markets

US–Iran Conflict

Iran Nuke before 2027?

5%

—

diplomatic$1.2M

US–Iran Conflict

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

28%

—

treaty$74.0K

US–Iran Conflict

Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

31%

—

diplomatic$977
Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

US–Iran Conflict

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

0%

—

treaty$162.2K